Trump up 15 in This Crucial State

( – Signaling Americans are ready to see America rising to greatness once again, former President Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden by 15 points in the crucial battleground state of Michigan.

Specifically, the Kaplan Strategies survey shows Trump at 51% and Biden at 36%.

Michigan plays a key role as a swing state as it can potentially tip the Electoral College balance.

Trump claimed Michigan in the 2016 election, but Biden won it back in 2020, which shows that the 2024 outcome could be equally contested.

Other polling suggests varied prospects for Biden in Michigan. An Emerson College/The Hill poll from last week has Biden slightly trailing Trump, 44% to 45%.

On the flip side, a Bloomberg News and Morning Consult poll from April sees Biden leading Trump 47% to 45%, though it also shows Trump’s lead in six other key swing states.

Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight ranks Kaplan Strategies 82nd for historical accuracy and methodological transparency, assigning it a score of -0/9. In April, betting odds from Polymarket favor Biden over Trump in Michigan, 57% to 44%.

City University of New York associate professor Heath Brown advised not to over-rely on single polls and noted the race seems tightly contested.

“The polling over the last several months indicates this is a very close race. I wouldn’t read too much into any one or two polls at this point,” Brown said. “The trend seems to be that the campaign will be a very tight one and I suspect the polls will reflect that until November.”

Biden-Harris 2024 communications director Michael Tyler slammed general polling methods, stating, “Whether it’s in special elections or in the presidential primaries, actual voter behavior tells us a lot more than any poll does and it tells a very clear story.

“Joe Biden and Democrats continue to outperform while Donald Trump and the party he leads are weak, cash-strapped, and deeply divided,” he concluded.

The poll involved 804 participants and has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

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