Only one number matters before the midterms: 34% of Americans approve of President Trump’s job performance, and 66% do not.
Story Snapshot
- NBC’s large national poll pegs Trump approval at 34% and disapproval at 66%.
- Opposition is intense: 51% say they strongly disapprove of his performance.
- Registered voters prefer Democratic control of Congress by 55% to 45%.
- Independent voters give Trump only 21% approval, far below Republicans.
What The Poll Shows In Plain Terms
NBC News reports a second-term low for President Trump’s job rating: 34% approve, 66% disapprove, with 51% strongly disapproving. That is not a normal headwind. That is a gale. The same poll shows the Republican Party with a 37% favorable and 63% unfavorable rating, which pairs a weak brand with a weak leader number. Registered voters also favor Democratic control of Congress by 55% to 45%, a broad national edge that frames the fight for the House.
Support inside the Republican coalition looks softer at the edges. NBC’s earlier survey found “strongly approve” among Republicans fell to 41% while “somewhat approve” rose to 39%, a clear dip in intensity even if total approval stayed high in the party. Approval among independents sits at 21%, which is where waves form in midterms: when the middle breaks hard, seats flip more easily. Democratic gains often ride that current, though not in every cycle.
How This Fits The Wider Pattern
Midterms often act like a referendum. When voters feel unhappy with the president, they tend to vote against his party down the ballot, even if they like their local member of Congress. Scholars have mapped this for decades: approval moves votes, but the effect varies by chamber, incumbents, and local issues. History also warns against simple rules; unusual events can blunt the pattern, but low presidential approval usually makes the map steeper for the president’s party.
Other national polls point the same direction on approval. Axios reported Washington Post–ABC News–Ipsos at 33%, NBC at 34%, and Fox News at 36%, all clustered near Trump’s lows in their series. One strong caveat applies to every national “generic ballot” and approval number: these are mood thermometers, not seat counters. District lines, turnout, candidate quality, and state maps decide control, even when national breeze blows hard.
Where The Numbers Bite Hardest
Intensity drives turnout, and 51% strong disapproval is rocket fuel for the other side. That finding matters more than any one week of headlines. Strong feelings send in early ballots, fill volunteer shifts, and close the deal with swing voters who dislike chaos. The Republican brand’s 37% favorable rating adds a second weight on the same side of the scale. Campaigns can outrun noise; they cannot outrun math if the math holds through Election Day.
According to major national trackers, THE MOST RECENT President Donald Trump's approval rating has cratered to a record second-term low, heavily driven by public dissatisfaction over the war in Iran, inflation, and the cost of living.
Major Recent Polls
ABC News/Washington…
— Bonnie Boden (@designergirla) October 19, 2026
Conservatives should read these results as a course-correct, not a surrender. Voters often punish parties that look distracted from daily life. Focus on prices, safety, schools, and the border tends to win back independents. The poll’s split inside the Republican family—more “somewhat approve,” less “strongly approve”—signals room to rebuild intensity with results and message discipline, not with louder rallies. Elections reward steadiness more than spikes of outrage.
Sources:
nbcnews.com, usatoday.com, news18.com, axios.com, onlinelibrary.wiley.com
