Latino voters are telling pollsters they trust Democrats over Republicans to run Congress by a 24-point margin, a dramatic reversal from the gains President Trump made with this group in 2024.
Story Snapshot
- A new NBC News/Telemundo poll finds Democrats lead Republicans 59% to 35% among Latino registered voters on which party should control Congress.
- President Trump’s approval rating among Latino voters sits at 27%, with 69% disapproving.
- Inflation and the cost of living top the list of concerns, named the most important issue by 33% of respondents.
- The poll surveyed 800 registered Latino voters from September 21 to 28, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points.
What The Poll Actually Found
NBC News and Telemundo surveyed 800 registered Latino voters by phone and text-based online outreach, with a fifth of interviews conducted in Spanish. The results point to a clear break from the political coalition that helped deliver Trump a share of Latino support in 2024. Democrats now hold a commanding edge on the generic congressional ballot, 59% to 35%, among this group heading into the midterms.
Trump’s standing among Latino voters has fallen sharply since his election win. Only 27% approve of his job performance, while 69% disapprove, according to the poll. That gap reflects a broader erosion of support among a bloc that Republicans had spent years courting, including Latino men who were credited with helping flip key counties toward Trump in the last presidential race.
Money Worries Drive The Shift
Economic pain, not immigration or culture-war fights, appears to be the engine behind this movement. Inflation and the cost of living ranked as the top issue for 33% of respondents, and a majority, 52%, placed it first or second on their list of concerns. Nearly four in five Latino voters, 78%, disapprove of how Trump has handled the cost of living, and 74% disapprove of his economic record overall.
The survey also asked voters to judge Trump’s policies directly. A striking 65% said his policies have hurt economic conditions, compared with just 23% who said they helped. Another 63% reported their family income is falling behind the rising cost of living, while only 11% said their income is outpacing it. Those numbers paint a picture of households feeling squeezed, regardless of party label.
Not A Simple, One-Way Story
NBC’s own reporting includes an important wrinkle: despite the sharp Democratic advantage in this poll, the network notes Republicans have made some long-term gains with Latino voters over recent election cycles. That detail matters. A single poll captures a moment, not a guaranteed trajectory, and Latino voting patterns have swung before based on turnout and which issues dominate the news cycle.
History backs up that caution. Latino turnout has lagged behind other groups for decades and has moved unevenly from cycle to cycle, rising to record highs in some midterms and dropping sharply in others. Academic research tracking the 2020 and 2024 elections found the Democratic-Republican margin among Latino voters narrowed from 34 points to just 14 points in that span, even as the Latino share of the electorate grew. That volatility suggests this group responds strongly to pocketbook conditions rather than locking into one party for good.
What stands out in this poll is how directly voters link their economic anxiety to the man in the Oval Office. Conservatives have long argued that affordability, not identity politics, wins elections, and these numbers suggest Latino voters are applying that same logic against the party currently in power. If cost-of-living pressure persists through the midterms, Republicans will need a credible economic message to stop the bleeding, because grievance alone will not win back voters focused on their grocery bills and rent.
The poll stands as a snapshot taken in late September, ahead of a midterm season still weeks from Election Day. Campaign events, economic data releases, and immigration headlines between now and November could still reshape how this bloc votes. For now, the numbers show a Latino electorate frustrated with rising costs and willing to say so loudly to pollsters.
Sources:
nbcnews.com, politicalwire.com, today.com
