Trump Approval NOSEDIVES – Poll Hits Record Low

Trump’s second-term approval slide is not just another bad headline; it is a test of whether political gravity still applies in an age when every side swears the polls are lying.

Story Snapshot

Major national polls now cluster in the mid-to-high 30s for Trump’s job approval, marking a clear second-term low.^[1]^[4]
Disapproval is not only high but intensely high, with strong disapproval approaching or crossing the 50 percent mark in several surveys.^[2]^[5]
Independent voters, once Trump’s emergency escape hatch, now rank among his weakest blocs.^[2]^[4]
The fight is shifting from “Are the numbers real?” to “What happens if they stay here through the midterms?”^[1]

How Low Is “Low”? The New Polling Floor

Gallup now pegs Trump’s job approval at 36 percent, with 60 percent disapproving, his worst showing of the second term and nearly matching his all-time low of 34 percent at the end of his first.^[1] The Pew Research Center places him even lower at 34 percent, again described as a second-term low, with steady decline over recent months.^[4] When Nate Silver’s approval average hits a net negative of about -19, you are not looking at a one-off wobble; you are looking at a hardened ceiling.^[5]

Other pollsters see the same ballpark, not an outlier. An Economist and YouGov survey finds Trump at 38 percent approval and 59 percent disapproval, with a net approval of -21, tying his worst net result in that series.^[2] Statista’s compilation shows about 40 percent approval as of early May, still clearly underwater.^[4] A separate YouGov favorability tracker reports nearly half the country holding a strongly unfavorable view of Trump.^[5] Poll houses disagree on the exact number, but none place him near majority support.

Where Trump Is Bleeding Support

Trump’s erosion is most politically dangerous where Republicans cannot afford it: independents and the softer edges of his own coalition. Economist and YouGov data show only 26 percent of independents approving and 69 percent disapproving, a brutal -43 net rating and far worse than his first-term standing with the same group.^[2]

The Pew Research Center reports that approval among Trump’s 2024 voters has slipped from the mid-90s in his early second-term months to 78 percent now, with especially sharp drops among younger and Hispanic supporters.^[4]

Americans who skipped the 2024 vote have also cooled, with approval among these nonvoters down from 45 percent early in 2025 to about 26 percent.^[4] Those voters are the swing ballast of any realignment election; losing them means relying on base turnout and hoping the other side stays home. Nearly all 2024 Kamala Harris voters, about 98 percent, currently disapprove of Trump’s performance, leaving almost no crossover room.^[4] When one side’s base is nearly unanimously opposed and the middle is souring, the math turns unforgiving.

Issue Ratings Worse Than The Topline

Issue-by-issue numbers tell an even darker story than the topline approval. Gallup finds Trump rated more negatively than positively on nine separate foreign and domestic issues; even where he “overperforms,” like crime at 43 percent approval, the numbers barely rise above his overall rating.^[1] His previous strengths on the economy, immigration, and the federal deficit have eroded to the point where they no longer offset his weaknesses. That pattern screams fatigue rather than a temporary policy backlash.

Nate Silver’s breakdown underscores the depth of discontent: nearly half of Americans now say they strongly disapprove of Trump’s job performance.^[5] That kind of hardened sentiment rarely flips quickly; it usually moves only after concrete changes on pocketbook issues or a major external event. Multiple CBS-linked polls on the economy, summarized in broadcast coverage, show Trump’s economic approval sliding as inflation, war-related energy shocks, and affordability concerns pile up.^[2] Conservative voters care about cost of living, rule of law, and border security; when they decide a leader is failing on those fronts, the floor can keep falling.

Trump approval rating hits second-term low in new pollinghttps://t.co/05kx1RraoA

— The Hill (@thehill) May 18, 2026

Are The Polls Skewed, Or Is The Pain Real?

Trump allies argue that the widely discussed New York Times and Siena College 37 percent approval finding must be biased, pointing to elite media hostility and alleged left-leaning samples. Skeptics fairly note that the full questionnaire, weighting scheme, and cross-tabs often get less attention than the headline number, leaving room for question-order effects and sampling quirks. Every serious poll watcher knows that one survey can miss the mark, and every pollster house has its own lean.

Yet conservative common sense says you do not dismiss an entire trend because you do not like the messenger. When a Times and Siena poll, a Gallup series, an Economist and YouGov survey, the Pew Research Center, and a polling average built from many firms all land in roughly the same mid-30s to 40 percent zone, the burden shifts. The question stops being, “Is this one poll rigged?” and becomes, “Why have so many voters, including people who once backed Trump, stopped giving him passing marks?”^[1]^[2]^[4]^[5]

What A Stuck Mid-30s President Means For 2026 And Beyond

History says presidents can survive a season in the high 30s; they do not usually govern effectively if they camp there. The Cornell Roper Center’s historical review shows that sustained approval in the low 30s often coincides with legislative stalemate and brutal midterm results.^[6] Congressional approval, hovering near the mid-teens in Gallup’s data, offers Trump no institutional shield; voters seem angry at Washington across the board, not just one party.^[1]

For conservatives, the core risk is strategic. If Trump’s approval stays near these second-term lows, Republicans face 2026 midterms with a leader who energizes the base but repels independents and younger voters who actually decide close races.^[1]^[2]^[4]^[5] For liberals, the risk is complacency, assuming bad numbers automatically translate to easy wins. Polls are thermometers, not steering wheels. The real story here is not a single 37 percent reading; it is whether anyone in Washington treats this polling floor as a wake-up call or just another talking point.