Iran is threatening one-fifth of the world’s oil supply and potentially sending prices skyrocketing after its parliament has ordered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
This aggressive move is a direct response to U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, and could disrupt $1 billion in daily oil commerce.
Although the Iranian parliament approved the measure to close the critical waterway, the final decision rests with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
The Strait serves as a chokepoint for about 25% of the world’s seaborne oil trade, making it one of the most strategically important waterways on the planet.
Should Iran follow through with this threat, American consumers would face immediate pain at the pump.
Oil prices, which closed at $77.01 per barrel on Friday, would likely open “meaningfully higher,” according to energy analysts.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards seem eager to escalate tensions. Commander Email Kosari stated that Iran’s “major escalation in response to US strikes on its nuclear facilities will be done whenever necessary.”
These remarks suggest this move is just the opening salvo in what could become a broader conflict.
“Iran would most likely pursue a multi-layered asymmetric strategy rather than attempting an outright naval blockade,” said Gregg Roman, Executive Director of the Middle East Forum.
Military experts indicate Iran may deploy naval mines, launch anti-ship missiles, and use tactics similar to those employed by Houthi terrorists, including swarm attacks on commercial vessels.
Such actions would mirror Iran’s previous disruptions of Persian Gulf traffic, including the seizure of a container ship earlier this year.
Analysts from the Eurasia Group noted that closing the strait “would be an effective declaration of war against the Gulf states and the US.”
However, Iran may still increase harassment of tanker traffic in the coming days.
“The US has amassed a massive military presence in the Gulf and surrounding region, and a move by Iran against the strait would almost certainly trigger a significant military response,” Eurasia Group analysts stated.
The threat extends beyond American interests. The closure would severely impact oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates, while disrupting supplies to Asian nations including China, India, Japan, and South Korea.
Experts note that Iran lacks the legal authority to close the Strait without using force, and doing so would actually damage Iran’s own economy since it relies on the waterway for its oil exports.
As the world braces for potential price increases, this situation highlights the critical importance of the Strait for the global economy.
